After my last dive into IFDB data, I became curious about what could be learned about patterns of play, specifically the order in which people choose games.
After some reprocessing, I was able to get data sets to show:
- For a given game, which games were most often played immediately before or after it?
- For a given game, which games were most often played before or after it in general?
This of course covers only the activity of people using IFDB’s features to track their own play. Also, there are all kinds of imperfections in this data for the purpose, e.g. that IFDB members may rate/click “I’ve played it” in a different order than the one in which games were actually played, especially for plays registered on the first day of membership. (Many new accounts register plays of several games on the first day, presumably because the member is marking games played prior to signing up.) Still, this data is the closest thing to what’s desired that is also available publicly.
The “what’s played in general before Game X” data is not tremendously useful, because it’s dominated by a small group of very popular games, as seen last time. It’s more evidence that those games tend to be played first (or at least early) by individual members, but the top results are so close to uniform that it’s not very informative.
The “what’s played immediately before/after Game X” data is mildly interesting, but due to the relatively small amount of data there aren’t usually patterns of interest – it’s reflective of the happenstance of individual players’ choices, and the most consistent pairings seem to be between games in the same competition, which I think says more about the community culture around comps than it does about patterns of player preferences.
However, the “what’s played in general after Game X” does seem a little interesting, especially for games that have been out for a while. There is still often a large footprint seen from the “Big Ten” games, and a noticeable correlation for games appearing in the same comp together, but the other pairings seem to indicate something about player preferences in the mass. This is potentially useful for recommendations because it answers the question “For people having played Game X, which games are they likely to play in the future?”
Some example results using the fresh data from September 1st this year:
Counterfeit Monkey
+--------------------+---------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+--------------------+---------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Counterfeit Monkey | Lost Pig | 95 | 418 | 22.7273 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | The Wizard Sniffer | 84 | 418 | 20.0957 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Toby's Nose | 82 | 418 | 19.6172 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Violet | 81 | 418 | 19.3780 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | 9:05 | 81 | 418 | 19.3780 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Photopia | 78 | 418 | 18.6603 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Bronze | 74 | 418 | 17.7033 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Superluminal Vagrant Twin | 73 | 418 | 17.4641 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Galatea | 73 | 418 | 17.4641 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Anchorhead | 73 | 418 | 17.4641 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Eat Me | 67 | 418 | 16.0287 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Spider and Web | 66 | 418 | 15.7895 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Aisle | 66 | 418 | 15.7895 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | The Impossible Bottle | 62 | 418 | 14.8325 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Birdland | 61 | 418 | 14.5933 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Suveh Nux | 61 | 418 | 14.5933 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Shade | 60 | 418 | 14.3541 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Savoir-Faire | 55 | 418 | 13.1579 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Coloratura | 55 | 418 | 13.1579 |
| Counterfeit Monkey | Slouching Towards Bedlam | 55 | 418 | 13.1579 |
+--------------------+---------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
How to read the above:
f_title: the game being studied, i.e. “Game X” (“from title”)t_title: a game played by the same player(s) some time after playingf_title(“to title”)num_con: number of players who playedf_titlewho went on to playt_title(“number continuing”)num_poss: number of players who playedf_title(“number possible”)pct:num_con / num_poss, as a percentage
Only the top 20 results are shown, not worrying about ties, so it’s possible that other games would appear at the same frequency as Coloratura and Slouching Towards Bedlam if the chart were extended – they’re just not shown since they weren’t in the first 20 rows. Note that the sum of num_con will far exceed num_poss because the same person can go on to play more than one of the games appearing on the list.
Some other examples:
Detritus
+----------+----------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+----------+----------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Detritus | course correction | 9 | 59 | 15.2542 |
| Detritus | Ancient Treasure, Secret Spider | 8 | 59 | 13.5593 |
| Detritus | oxblood | 8 | 59 | 13.5593 |
| Detritus | The Universal Robot (Assembled By Hex) | 8 | 59 | 13.5593 |
| Detritus | Our Lady of Thorns | 8 | 59 | 13.5593 |
| Detritus | the lamp of your body | 8 | 59 | 13.5593 |
| Detritus | Stage Fright | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | Cryptid Hunter | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | strings: a (bug)folk song | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | 23 Minutes | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | The Red Pearls of Borneo | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | The Wise-Woman's Dog | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | Every day I get emails | 7 | 59 | 11.8644 |
| Detritus | Lady Thalia and the Case of Clephan | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | The Den | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | requiescat | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | A Normal Morning | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | Endymion | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | All That Shimmers... | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
| Detritus | Cyclic Fruition Number One | 6 | 59 | 10.1695 |
+----------+----------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
The Wise-Woman's Dog
+----------------------+------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+----------------------+------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Our Lady of Thorns | 12 | 38 | 31.5789 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Detritus | 12 | 38 | 31.5789 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Saltwrack | 11 | 38 | 28.9474 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | course correction | 10 | 38 | 26.3158 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | The Antediluvian Weapon | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | A Rock's Tale | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Who Whacked Jimmy Piñata? | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | The Little Four | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | The Semantagician's Assistant | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | The Witch Girls | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Super Halloween Horror Show | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | you are an ancient chinese poet at the neo-orchid pavilion | 9 | 38 | 23.6842 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Lady Thalia and the Case of Clephan | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | A Normal Morning | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Ancient Treasure, Secret Spider | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Us Too | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | strings: a (bug)folk song | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | The Universal Robot (Assembled By Hex) | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Every day I get emails | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
| The Wise-Woman's Dog | Grand Island Bank Robbery | 8 | 38 | 21.0526 |
+----------------------+------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
First Things First
+--------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+--------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| First Things First | A Rope of Chalk | 12 | 36 | 33.3333 |
| First Things First | The Impossible Stairs | 11 | 36 | 30.5556 |
| First Things First | The Magpie Takes the Train | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | Toby's Nose | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | Eat Me | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | Three-Card Trick | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | The Impossible Bottle | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | The Little Match Girl, by Hans Christian Andersen | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | The Little Match Girl 4: Crown of Pearls | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | Detectiveland | 10 | 36 | 27.7778 |
| First Things First | Brain Guzzlers from Beyond! | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Foo Foo | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Stuff of Legend | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Trouble in Sector 471 | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Reference and Representation: An Approach to First-Order Semantics | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Illuminismo Iniziato | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Everybody Dies | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | The Wizard Sniffer | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
| First Things First | Dial C for Cupcakes | 9 | 36 | 25.0000 |
+--------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Skies Above
+-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Skies Above | And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One | 15 | 27 | 55.5556 |
| Skies Above | The Little Match Girl 4: Crown of Pearls | 13 | 27 | 48.1481 |
| Skies Above | The Impossible Bottle | 12 | 27 | 44.4444 |
| Skies Above | The Bat | 12 | 27 | 44.4444 |
| Skies Above | According to Cain | 12 | 27 | 44.4444 |
| Skies Above | The Absence of Miriam Lane | 12 | 27 | 44.4444 |
| Skies Above | Trouble in Sector 471 | 11 | 27 | 40.7407 |
| Skies Above | A Rope of Chalk | 11 | 27 | 40.7407 |
| Skies Above | The Little Match Girl, by Hans Christian Andersen | 11 | 27 | 40.7407 |
| Skies Above | The Archivist and the Revolution | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | The Wise-Woman's Dog | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | The Vambrace of Destiny | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | A Murder in Fairyland | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | Tavern Crawler | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | Sage Sanctum Scramble | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | Grandma Bethlinda's Remarkable Egg | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | The Impossible Stairs | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | An Account of Your Visit to the Enchanted House & What You Found There | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Skies Above | Assembly | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Skies Above | Black Knife Dungeon | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
+-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Bogeyman
+----------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+----------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Bogeyman | And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One | 25 | 120 | 20.8333 |
| Bogeyman | Erstwhile | 25 | 120 | 20.8333 |
| Bogeyman | my father's long, long legs | 24 | 120 | 20.0000 |
| Bogeyman | Turandot | 24 | 120 | 20.0000 |
| Bogeyman | 16 Ways to Kill a Vampire at McDonalds | 23 | 120 | 19.1667 |
| Bogeyman | the uncle who works for nintendo | 23 | 120 | 19.1667 |
| Bogeyman | Dr Ludwig and the Devil | 23 | 120 | 19.1667 |
| Bogeyman | The Bat | 22 | 120 | 18.3333 |
| Bogeyman | The Absence of Miriam Lane | 22 | 120 | 18.3333 |
| Bogeyman | A Long Way to the Nearest Star | 21 | 120 | 17.5000 |
| Bogeyman | Type Help | 20 | 120 | 16.6667 |
| Bogeyman | The Impossible Bottle | 20 | 120 | 16.6667 |
| Bogeyman | Fairest | 20 | 120 | 16.6667 |
| Bogeyman | Uninteractive Fiction | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | Cannery Vale | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | A Paradox Between Worlds | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | Zozzled | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | The Grown-Up Detective Agency | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | What Heart Heard Of, Ghost Guessed | 19 | 120 | 15.8333 |
| Bogeyman | 9:05 | 18 | 120 | 15.0000 |
+----------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Fifteen Minutes
+-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Fifteen Minutes | Chlorophyll | 10 | 29 | 34.4828 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Eat Me | 10 | 29 | 34.4828 |
| Fifteen Minutes | HHH.exe | 10 | 29 | 34.4828 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Lime Ergot | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Harmonia | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Will Not Let Me Go | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Three-Card Trick | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | A Beauty Cold and Austere | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Junior Arithmancer | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Birdland | 9 | 29 | 31.0345 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Swigian | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Inward Narrow Crooked Lanes | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Missive | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Darkiss! Wrath of the Vampire - Chapter 1: the Awakening | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Toby's Nose | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Ether | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | The Wand | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | 16 Ways to Kill a Vampire at McDonalds | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | The Absence of Miriam Lane | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
| Fifteen Minutes | Ryan Veeder's Authentic Fly Fishing | 8 | 29 | 27.5862 |
+-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Detectiveland
+---------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+---------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Detectiveland | The Wizard Sniffer | 29 | 86 | 33.7209 |
| Detectiveland | Color the Truth | 26 | 86 | 30.2326 |
| Detectiveland | The Impossible Bottle | 26 | 86 | 30.2326 |
| Detectiveland | Eat Me | 25 | 86 | 29.0698 |
| Detectiveland | Bogeyman | 22 | 86 | 25.5814 |
| Detectiveland | Alias 'The Magpie' | 22 | 86 | 25.5814 |
| Detectiveland | 16 Ways to Kill a Vampire at McDonalds | 21 | 86 | 24.4186 |
| Detectiveland | Galatea | 20 | 86 | 23.2558 |
| Detectiveland | Limerick Heist | 20 | 86 | 23.2558 |
| Detectiveland | Zozzled | 19 | 86 | 22.0930 |
| Detectiveland | Junior Arithmancer | 19 | 86 | 22.0930 |
| Detectiveland | Will Not Let Me Go | 19 | 86 | 22.0930 |
| Detectiveland | The Absence of Law | 19 | 86 | 22.0930 |
| Detectiveland | A Rope of Chalk | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | Erstwhile | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | The Wand | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | The Grown-Up Detective Agency | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | Tethered | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
| Detectiveland | The Magpie Takes the Train | 18 | 86 | 20.9302 |
+---------------+----------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Starry Seeksorrow
+-------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+-------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Starry Seeksorrow | The Wizard Sniffer | 13 | 27 | 48.1481 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Foo Foo | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | The Wand | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Sub Rosa | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Alias 'The Magpie' | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Bogeyman | 10 | 27 | 37.0370 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Eat Me | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Will Not Let Me Go | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Detectiveland | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Midnight. Swordfight. | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Oppositely Opal | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Reference and Representation: An Approach to First-Order Semantics | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Cactus Blue Motel | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Winter Storm Draco | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | 16 Ways to Kill a Vampire at McDonalds | 9 | 27 | 33.3333 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Known Unknowns | 8 | 27 | 29.6296 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Harmonia | 8 | 27 | 29.6296 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Inside the Facility | 8 | 27 | 29.6296 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Superluminal Vagrant Twin | 8 | 27 | 29.6296 |
| Starry Seeksorrow | Brain Guzzlers from Beyond! | 8 | 27 | 29.6296 |
+-------------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires
+-----------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+-----------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Lady Thalia and the Rose of Rocroi | 18 | 37 | 48.6486 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Detritus | 16 | 37 | 43.2432 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Wise-Woman's Dog | 15 | 37 | 40.5405 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Archivist and the Revolution | 15 | 37 | 40.5405 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Bones of Rosalinda | 13 | 37 | 35.1351 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | A Long Way to the Nearest Star | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Fairest | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | free bird. | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Den | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Bat | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Winter-Over | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | An Account of Your Visit to the Enchanted House & What You Found There | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Saltwrack | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Witch Girls | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | LUNIUM | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Cut the Sky | 12 | 37 | 32.4324 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Lady Thalia and the Masterpiece of Moldavia | 11 | 37 | 29.7297 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | The Burger Meme Personality Test | 11 | 37 | 29.7297 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Lady Thalia and the Case of Clephan | 11 | 37 | 29.7297 |
| Lady Thalia and the Seraskier Sapphires | Assembly | 11 | 37 | 29.7297 |
+-----------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
Stay?
+---------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| f_title | t_title | num_con | num_poss | pct |
+---------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+
| Stay? | Dr Ludwig and the Devil | 14 | 53 | 26.4151 |
| Stay? | Cut the Sky | 14 | 53 | 26.4151 |
| Stay? | The Bat | 13 | 53 | 24.5283 |
| Stay? | Type Help | 13 | 53 | 24.5283 |
| Stay? | And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One | 13 | 53 | 24.5283 |
| Stay? | What Heart Heard Of, Ghost Guessed | 12 | 53 | 22.6415 |
| Stay? | The Bones of Rosalinda | 12 | 53 | 22.6415 |
| Stay? | Winter-Over | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | An Account of Your Visit to the Enchanted House & What You Found There | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | Repeat the Ending | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | Sting | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | A Long Way to the Nearest Star | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | The Archivist and the Revolution | 11 | 53 | 20.7547 |
| Stay? | The Little Match Girl 4: Crown of Pearls | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | A Dark Room | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | The Den | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | Forsaken Denizen | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | Fairest | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | EYE | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
| Stay? | Uninteractive Fiction | 10 | 53 | 18.8679 |
+---------+------------------------------------------------------------------------+---------+----------+---------+