IFComp 2024 Predictions

Competitions IFComp
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As wtih 2023, 2022, and 2021, I made a spreadsheet to predict IFComp scores based on a linear regression on a set of game features, including IFDB ratings, game length, number of public reviews, and parser vs choice.

In this spreadsheet, the games are ordered by predicted ranking, using the model fitted on IFComp 2023 results.

Unfortunately I haven’t played many games this year, in particular few of the highest-rated games and almost none of the parser games, so I can’t really give a personal take. I do feel like some of the parser games are underrated here.

What are your predictions?

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I said in my reviews that I expect “Miss Gosling’s Last Case” to do well because it has just the right amount of innovation and traditional stuff and also has the gentle humor that top-ranking games seem to have.

It also has both parser and choice options, which could have broad appeal.

My offhand guess is that it places in the top ten, but I have nothing at stake and I’ll probably be wrong.

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It has been a true pleasure exploring all the IFComp entries.
The dedication, creativity, and passion evident in each work are truly admirable.
Every story, every puzzle, every world created has offered me a unique experience.
For me, it is impossible to choose a single winner.
They are all precious gems that enrich the landscape of interactive fiction.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart to all the authors
for giving us these fantastic adventures!

first place : 198BREW	DWaM
first place : Account of Your Visit to the Enchanted House & What You Found There, An	Mandy Benanav
first place : Apothecary's Assistant, The	Allyson Gray
first place : Bad Beer	Vivienne Dunstan
first place : Bat, The	Chandler Groover
first place : Big Fish	Binggang Zhuo
first place : Birding in Pope Lick Park	Eric Lathrop
first place : Breakfast in the Dolomites	Roberto Ceccarelli - «The Strawberry Field»
first place : Bureau of Strange Happenings	Phil Riley
first place : Campfire	loreKin
first place : Civil Service	Helen L Liston
first place : Curse, The	Rob
first place : Death in Hyperspace, A	Stewart C Baker, Phoebe Barton, James Beamon, Kate Heartfield, Isabel J. Kim, Sara S. Messenger, Nacarat, Natalia Theodoridou, M. Darusha Wehm, and Merc Fenn Wolfmoor
first place : Deliquescence	Not-Only But-Also Riley
first place : Den, The	Ben Jackson
first place : Deserter, The	MemoryCanyon
first place : Doctor Who and the Dalek Super-Brain	jkj yuio
first place : Dragon of Silverton Mine, The	Vukasin Davic
first place : Dream Of Silence: Act 3, A	Abigail Corfman
first place : Dust	IkeC
first place : Eikas	Lauren O'Donoghue
first place : Few hours later in the day of The Egocentric, A	Ola Hansson
first place : Final Call	doq, Emily S,
first place : First Contact	dott. Piergiorgio
first place : Focal Shift	Fred Snyder
first place : Forbidden Lore	Alex Crossley
first place : Forsaken Denizen	C.E.J. Pacian
first place : Garbage of the Future, The	AM Ruf
first place : Hebe	Marina Diagourta
first place : Hildy	J. Michael
first place : House of Wolves	Shruti Deo
first place : Imprimatura	Elizabeth Ballou
first place : Killings in Wasacona, The	Steve Kollmansberger
first place : KING OF XANADU	MACHINES UNDERNEATH
first place : LATEX, LEATHER, LIPSTICK, LOVE, LUST	THE BODY & THE BLOOD
first place : Lost Artist: Prologue, The	Alejandro Ruiz del Sol
first place : Master's Lair, The	Stefan Hoffmann
first place : Maze Gallery, The	Cryptic Conservatory
first place : Metallic Red	Riaz Moola
first place : Miss Duckworthy's School for Magic-Infested Young People	Felicity_Banks
first place : Miss Gosling's Last Case	Daniel M. Stelzer
first place : Quest for the Teacup of Minor Sentimental Value	Damon L. Wakes
first place : Redjackets	Anna C. Webster
first place : Return to Claymorgue's Castle	Claudio Daffra
first place : ROD MCSCHLONG GETS PUNCHED IN THE DONG	Hubert Janus
first place : Saltcast Adventure, The	Beth Carpenter
first place : Shyler Project, The	Naomi Norbez (call me Bez, e/he)
first place : Sidekick	Charles Moore
first place : String Theory	W Pzinski
first place : Traffic	D. S. Yu
first place : Triskelion Affair, The	Clyde Falsoon
first place : Turn Right	Dee Cooke
first place : Under the Cognomen of Edgar Allan Poe	Jim Nelson
first place : Uninteractive Fiction	Leah Thargic
first place : Unreal People	Viwoo
first place : Verses	Kit Riemer
first place : Very Strong Gland, A	Arthur DiBianca
first place : Warm Reception, A	Joshua Hetzel
first place : Welcome to the Universe	Colton Olds
first place : When the Millennium Made Marvelous Moves	Michael Baltes
first place : Where Nothing Is Ever Named	Viktor Sobol
first place : Why Pout?	Andrew Schultz
first place : Winter-Over	Emery Joyce and N. Cormier
first place : Yancy At The End Of The World!	Naomi Norbez (call me Bez, e/he)
first place : You	Carter X Gwertzman
first place : You Can't Save Her	Sarah Mak
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Interesting. I might be reading the spreadsheets incorrectly, but it seems that this model correctly predicted the winner in 2021, 2022 and 2023, even if it got the rest of the rankings wrong for the most part.

It also seems to suggest that being a parser game confers a slight penalty on a game’s ratings.

The time variable is pretty tricky. I noticed that a game with no playtime specified is simply assigned a value of zero for time, but this conflates a categorical variable with an ordinal variable. I’m not sure if there’s a better way to handle this, though. Time is also one of the few variables the entrant can ‘control’, since it is up to them to specify how long the game takes.

I guess we know who the winner is now? :innocent:
(even if the rest of the predictions may not be as accurate)

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It could just mean, for example, that parser games are more heavily favoured on IFDB than they are in the comp, and they model is correcting for that?

No idea if that’s true.

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Agreed that “Miss Gosling’s Last Case” is placed oddly low by this model. Also noted that it is marked “not parser” in column F, though it certainly can be played as a parser game, so I don’t know how that would change its ranking in the model.

I hope that “Claymorgue” will place higher than it does in this model. Despite weaknesses in the interface and game design, it does some highly innovative things technologically, enough that it deserves some recognition for that.

I expect “Gosling” to place first, and “The Den” to place in the top five. I’ve only played about a quarter of the games in the competition, so I can’t comment on some of the other nominees.

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I haven’t played The Bat, but the commentary around it seems sufficiently enthusiastic that I’m prepared to believe it’s a likely winner. I expect The Den to place highly too. I really enjoyed Gosling, but I couldn’t finish it without hints, and I don’t know if that’s a turn-off for some people? (That said, the same is true of The Impossible Bottle, with which Miss Gosling has many similarities, and which did place (joint) first.)

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You’re great.

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Winner looks like a safe bat to me.

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I agree that Miss Gosling is likely to beat the spreadsheet’s prediction; I feel the same way about Bad Beer, Under the Cognomen…, and even Forsaken Denizen. (Yes, the spreadsheet has it as 6th but my money is on top 3!)

I haven’t done any kind of research on this, but I have the vague gut feeling that games have been racking up fewer IFDB votes during the comp over the last few years, and especially this year. Checking just now it looks like there’s been a burst of votes in the last day or so (5 out of Winter-Over’s 6 ratings have come in since the 15th) but I’m curious how this might affect the prediction algorithm anyway.

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I’m also seeing a flurry of new IFDB ratings on my game in the last few hours. I think lots of the IFDB average game ratings will change over the coming days.

I’m happy wherever I end up :slight_smile: I will be adding my own ratings to IFDB after the competition results are announced. Along with my reviews that I posted in the authors’ section here.

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I think The Bat will take the first place and Forsaken Denizen the second.

But of course the most important question, the one we all REALLY care about, concerns Uninteractive Fiction: will it be on the last place or not?
I crave the answer. The waiting is maddening.

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I haven’t played all the games, so I will almost certainly miss out on something (e.g., I did not play A Very Strong Gland, The Maze Gallery, Sidekick and Why Pout?). That said, I’m still going to try to give you a TOP 10. This is not my personal top 10, it is a prediction of the IF Comp outcome. And the TOP 10 is…

  1. Forsaken Denizen
  2. The Bat*
  3. The Den
  4. Sixtuple L
  5. Miss Gosling’s Last Case
  6. Eikas
  7. Metallic Red
  8. Account of Your Visit to the Enchanted House
  9. Winter-Over
  10. Under the Cognomen of Edgar Allan Poe

You can laugh at me afterwards! :wink:

* I could also have put The Bat first, but I want to be special.

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Based on forum buzz* I’d be tempted to put Forsaken Denizen at the top too, but The Bat definitely a close second. However, I’d probably move the no. 3 spot waaay down the list.

*although, based on the sheer amount of reviews, I’d probably have to put Uninteractive Fiction in first place so…

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The Den was really good! I wouldn’t be surprised if it got second. There’s almost no chance (I don’t really mean almost, I mean definitely, but I don’t want to say that) that it won’t get Top 20 (ie. almost certainly (ie. definitely :wink:) will get Top 20), so no need to downplay. I wouldn’t be surprised if it got Top 3, though I never get my hopes up just in case it isn’t…

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Oh, and on predictions, I say:

  1. The Bat
  2. (Forsaken Denizen? I dunno, haven’t played)
  3. The Den
  4. (Under the Cognomen? also haven’t played)
  5. Winter-Over
  6. Verses
  7. (Eikas? haven’t played…)
  8. Hildy (there’s a seeming trend where a polished, >2hr, old-school game gets eighth place: The Only Possible Prom Dress, Prince Quisborne, etc…)
  9. A Very Strong Gland
  10. LLLLL(L)? Birding? (Haven’t played either, but Birding is probably a strong candidate looking at reviews …)

Anyway, I can’t tell. I’m very biased. But, definitely some of those will be up there!

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The Bat was my favourite game, and I’d love it to win. But I haven’t played everything. I do expect it to score highly.

I also really liked Winter-Over and Under The Cognomen of Edgar Allan Poe. And wouldn’t be surprised if they finish higher in the rankings than the spreadsheet predicts.

Imprimatura is another whose predicted position surprises me. It was a bit divisive, but for many, including me, it clicked.

I’d honestly be surprised if Uninteractive Fiction doesn’t finish last. But we will see!

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I, for one, am preparing for Uninteractive Fiction to place first and for the rest of us to eat crow banana. :sweat_smile:

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It’s interesting that the model places You Can’t Save Her so high, not because it’s not good but because I’m not sure a 15-minute game has ever placed top 5. A good part of the motivation behind creating the Short Games Showcase was the observation that games under 30 minutes tend not to perform well in competitions that also include longer games. I’m not saying it could never happen, but I think it’s unlikely.

I agree that a number of the parser games are underrated; I think Under the Cognomen, A Very Strong Gland, and Miss Gosling are going to outperform these rankings, and maybe also Forsaken Denizen. I’ve been assuming for weeks that The Bat was going to take first place, so I’d be inclined to agree with that even if I didn’t know that the model is pretty reliable about predicting first place.

It was revealed to me in a dream that Winter-Over would place 15th, so the model is almost correct about that one. :stuck_out_tongue:

Yeah, I didn’t really enjoy the experience of playing it, but I did rate it higher than any of the other games the model has in the bottom 10 in recognition of this.

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I was unsure how to categorize Miss Gosling as parser vs choice when submitting it to the comp; I eventually selected “neither or both”, but that category is conflating two pretty different concepts.

Which is to say, I have no idea whether it should be categorized as is_parser here or not!

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