A special announcement: I had not planned to do author interviews for PCT like I did for FIFP, because without the Top 100 seed ranking to go by I couldn’t think of how to objectively judge what constituted an “upset” victory.
The other day I was looking over the data from the prediction game, and I realized that several of the matches so far have gone remarkably against the combined opinion of the “betting” crowd. It seems reasonable to use the outliers there as the basis for determining upsets. Using that yardstick, the results of the following matches constitute upset victories:
- #07: The Legend of Horse Girl vs. Aisle
- #11: A Change in the Weather vs. A Dark Room
- #18: The Dreamhold vs. What Heart Heard Of, Ghost Guessed
- #28: Scroll Thief vs. The Little Match Girl, by Hans Christian Andersen
- #33: Six vs. Illuminismo Iniziato
- #34: Buggy vs. Tales from Castle Balderstone
- #40: Sand-dancer vs. The Edifice
Yesterday, I reached out to the authors of the victors in those matches, and I’m pleased to report that @Draconis, @severedhand and @mathbrush have already agreed to field interviews. I’ve also sent out invitations to @bitterkarella and @aaronius to see whether they would be interested, and they may respond by the end of the tournament. (@zarf, I skipped you because you didn’t seem to want to be interviewed for FIFP, but you qualify twice if you decide to change your mind.)
I expect to get the first interview questions out around the middle of the week, and I’m hoping to be able to post the results of those who’ve already agreed by the end of this segment (i.e. end of the month). Additional invitations may be sent out based on the outcomes from this heat, but those would be the last since there is too much disagreement in the prediction data by Round 3.
While everyone is waiting for those, here are some quick polls:
- Yes
- No
- 1-2
- 3-5
- 6-10
- 11-20
- 21-40
- 41+
- 0-10%
- 11-20%
- 21-30%
- 31-40%
- 41-50%
- 51-60%
- 61-70%
- 71-80%
- 81-90%
- 91-100%