IFComp 2019 Result Predictions

(I was typing this out earlier, and my cat stepped on the keyboard, posting it prematurely. I fixed it now, though)

I do these privately every year, and recently I’ve been getting these wrong more and more often. Last year I didn’t even have Bogeyman or Animalia in the top 15, since they were so unusual compared to past entrants. I also though Cannery Vale or Erstwhile would take 2nd.

So this is probably garbage. It’s also compounded by the fact that two very good games (Turandot and Robotsexpartymurder have explicit sexual content in parts, which has been received favorably before (such as in Midnight. Swordfight.) but which may throw a wrench in things.

These predictions aren’t based on quality (I think Skybreak is winner-quality but won’t be first due to Adrift being a little difficult to operate) or personal preference (I loved Language Arts but expect it to place lower).

A polished, long parser(ish) comedy with good NPCs has won every year that such a game was entered. So I expect Zozzled to win (or possibly, Chuk and the Arena).

After the comedy, some dark or dramatic game inevitably takes 2nd. The most polished and long dark games are Heretic’s Hope, Turandot, and The Good People (or possibly Skybreak! or RobotSexPartyMurder)

After that, comedic Twine games generally post good scores, and I expect Chuk and the Arena and Dungeon Detective 2 to be up there.

Then all the other comedy parser games go, and then all the other high-quality, easily accessible games.So these are the general orders of placement I expect:

  • Zozzled

  • Heretic’s Hope/Turandot/The Good People

  • Chuk and the Arena/Dungeon Detective 2/Skybreak!

  • Sugarlawn/Remedial Witchcraft/Pirateship

  • Enceladus/Limerick Heist/Night Guard-Morning Star

  • Dull Grey/Skies Above/Black Sheep/Truck Quest/Poppet/Robotsexpartymurder/Very Vile Fairy File

My predictions are wrong every year. There’s a good chance that I’ll get none of these right. I just wanted to throw it out there!

For reference, here are my predictions from last year:

  • Alias the Magpie/Canneryvale/Erstwhile

  • Junior Arithmancer/Terminal Interface/Tethered

  • Lux/ Re:Dragon/ Grimnoir/Dynamite Powers/Madame Time/Master of the Land/En Garde/diddlebucker

  • Urs/Temple of Shorgil

And the year before that:

  • Eat Me/Wizard Sniffer
  • Will not Let me Go/Harmonia
  • The wand/The Owl Consults
  • Domestic Elementalism
  • 1958 /A Beauty Cold and Austere
  • Transient Skies
  • Harbinger/Rainbow Bridge/Ultimate Escape Room-IF City/Alice Aforethought/Fake News

(not including my own game, Absence of Law).

15 Likes

IFDB’s predicted top ten (based on getting at least 4 ratings):

  1. Chuk and the Arena
  2. robotsexpartymurder
  3. Zozzled
  4. Turandot
  5. Each-uisge
  6. Remedial Witchcraft
  7. Out
  8. Pirateship
  9. Saint City Sinners
  10. Skies Above

Full list: https://ifdb.tads.org/search?sortby=ratu&newSortBy.x=12&newSortBy.y=9&searchfor=%23ratings%3A4-+tag%3A"IFComp+2019"+

6 Likes

What could be more presumptuous than posting a prediction that includes your own game? Probably lots of things. Anyway, here’s my predicted top ten, in alphabetical order.

(Among the games whose placement I find hard to predict are Hard Puzzle 4, Clusterflux, Night Guard/Morning Star, Dull Grey, Robotsexpartymurder and Out.)

2 Likes

Here are my predictions:
1: Zozzled
2: Turandot
3: Pirateship
4: Chuck and the Arena
5: Robotsexpartymurder
6: Each-uisge
7: Sugarlawn
8: Remedial Witchcraft
9: Out
10: Skybreak!

5 Likes

Looks like you did a pretty good job this year :thinking:

And, yes, the pattern for the top three spots for 2019 follows the same general pattern as last year:

Comedic parser game
Dark CYOA game
Comedic CYOA game that plays like a parser game

I find that very interesting.

I actually thought Sugarlawn would snag number three and Chuk would be four, but other than that, the top five were what I expected. Of course, it’s much easier to state my predictions after the competition is over :smile:.

5 Likes

I guessed correctly:
1st Zozzled
2nd Turandot
5th Heretic’s Hope
82nd Lucerne :wink:

1 Like

I love that you put the Sugarlawn prediction at number 7 because Mike’s games have already received the seventh spot for the last two years. Was that prediction intentional on your part or just an interesting coincidence?

I was joking with Mike at the Seattle IF meet up that if he grabbed the seventh spot this year he would have hit a 7-7-7 jackpot, which I think would have been an amazing feat. But then he went and ruined it by writing an even better game than his previous two games :wink:.

5 Likes

I love that you put the Sugarlawn prediction at number 7 because Mike’s games have already received the seventh spot for the last two years. Was that prediction intentional on your part or just an interesting coincidence?

Number 7 was intentional :smiley: . No. 1,2,3,7 and 10 were all intentional and then I took the best-rated games on IFDB to fill in the gaps. I only got two of ten exact predictions right though.

1 Like